What does it mean to have your best season in your platform season? Juan Soto is about to find out.
Like his teammate Aaron Judge, Soto has been at his absolute best heading into his free agency. But Soto stands to set new records in free agency for two reasons: His production is elite, and he’s younger than most any other prominent free agent.
Soto is on pace for more than nine wins above replacement this season. Only three times this century has a position player reached free agency off a nine-win season: Alex Rodriguez twice and Aaron Judge.
Zooming out keeps Soto in rarefied air. He’s on pace to hit free agency after a five-year run of better than 32 wins above replacement. That would be behind only Rodriguez (twice) and Albert Pujols.
And Soto will hit free agency entering his age-26 season. Among prominent players, only Rodriguez reached free agency younger, back in 2001 at 25. Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and Jason Heywardare the only others to be free agents this century entering their age-26 season.
So what does this mean for his contract this winter?
I’ve done this exercise with Soto twice before.
- Spring 2023: 14 years, $528 million
- Winter 2023-24: 14 years, $540 million
A few things have changed since the last time I did this last winter. At that point, Soto was coming off a pair of lesser seasons — very good production, of course, but not elite. His platform season is already his best in the majors, and that lifts the ceiling on what he can earn.
Second, Shohei Ohtani signed for 10 years and about $438 million, when factoring in deferrals. That set a new record for both total compensation and average annual value. The contract did not, however, obliterate the old records, the way it first seemed when it was announced as a $700 million deal. In terms of total value, it edged out Mike Trout’s $426.5 million extension with the Angels; with an AAV of $43.8 million, it’s about a half-million clear of the deals signed by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander with the Mets.
Even when factoring in inflation over the last quarter-century, most major deals have hit a ceiling at around $43 million per year. That’s what Rodriguez’s first deal with the Rangers would be worth in today’s money; Trout’s would be at $42 million annually today.
So let’s first look at how Soto compares with last year’s big free agent.
